Sea State Forecast
Waves, swell, currents, sea temperature, wind and visibility for the Solent and the Channel
Small Boat Outlook
| Day | Strongest wind | Strongest gust | Channel wave height | Lowest visibility | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 13 Nov | 8 kn (force 3) | 13 kn | 0.8 m | 6.4 km | Fair |
| Sat 14 Nov | 11 kn (force 4) | 18 kn | 0.9 m | 10.8 km | Fair |
| Sun 15 Nov | 12 kn (force 4) | 22 kn | 2.5 m | 6.5 km | Poor |
| Mon 16 Nov | 11 kn (force 3) | 20 kn | 1.8 m | 18.3 km | Fair |
A rough guide for small boats in the Solent. Always check the official Inshore Waters and Shipping forecasts and use your own judgement before going afloat.
Wave Height (metres)
The height of the waves from trough to crest, shown for the sheltered Solent and the open English Channel. Solid lines are one computer model and dashed lines are a second, so where they agree you can have more confidence. Waves under 0.5 m are smooth, 0.5 to 1.25 m slight, 1.25 to 2.5 m moderate, and above that rough.
Swell and Wind Waves in the Channel (metres)
Waves come in two kinds. Wind waves are whipped up by the local wind and die down quickly when it drops. Swell is longer, smoother waves that have travelled in from distant storms and can arrive when the wind here is calm. Large swell with light wind can still make for an uncomfortable sea.
Wave Period (seconds)
The time between one wave crest and the next. Short periods of 2 to 5 seconds mean steep, choppy seas that feel rough for small boats. Long periods of 8 seconds or more mean long, gentle rolling swell, which is more comfortable but carries more energy onto beaches and harbour entrances.
Wind and Gusts (knots)
Average wind speed and the strongest gusts, 10 metres above the sea. As a guide, 7 to 10 knots is a gentle breeze (force 3), 11 to 16 is moderate (force 4), 17 to 21 is fresh (force 5), and 22 to 27 is strong (force 6). Gusts matter most for sailing and for launching and landing.
Sea Surface Temperature (°C)
The temperature of the surface water. Sea temperature changes slowly, so the lines look flat over three days. Cold water below about 12 degrees raises the risk of cold water shock, so lifejackets and the right clothing matter even on a mild day.
Sea Current Speed (knots)
The speed of the modelled surface current. Currents in the Solent are driven mostly by the tide and run much stronger than these broad model values, especially around the Needles, Hurst Narrows and the entrance to Southampton Water. Use this as a general indication and use the tide tables for exact flow.
Visibility (km)
How far you can see. Under 1 km is fog, 1 to 5 km is mist or haze, and 10 km or more is clear. Poor visibility on busy water such as the Solent and the Southampton Water shipping channel is a serious hazard, so low readings deserve extra caution.
Sea Level Pressure (hPa)
Air pressure at sea level. Falling pressure usually means wind and rain are on the way, and a fast fall of 6 hPa or more in three hours often means a rapid deterioration. Rising pressure points to settling weather.
Modelled Sea Level Height (metres)
The height of the sea surface in the model, which includes tide, pressure and wind effects. It is a broad model value rather than a tide table, so do not use it for exact high and low water times. Our tide tables give those.
Modelled Tide Height (metres)
The height of the tide in a marine computer model, shown every three hours, so the rise and fall shows as a wave shape. Peaks are around high water and troughs around low water. This is a broad model value and the timing and height can differ from the real tide in the Solent, so use our tide tables for exact times.
Storm Surge (metres)
Surge is the extra height or shortfall of the sea compared with the normal tide, caused mainly by air pressure and wind. Values above zero mean the sea is higher than the tide alone would give, which matters most around high water, and values below zero mean it is lower. Small values close to zero are normal.
About this page
Move your mouse over any graph to see the exact value at that time for every line, with units. The graphs run hour by hour for the next three days. Two marine computer models give the waves, swell, current and sea temperature, and a weather model gives the wind, visibility and pressure. Everything is saved between updates, so the page always has data even if a source is briefly offline.
The two places shown are a point in the middle of the Solent and a point in the English Channel south of the Isle of Wight. Models cover large areas, so they are least accurate close to shore and in narrow, sheltered water such as the Solent, where real waves are usually smaller than the model suggests and tidal streams are stronger.
This is general guidance and not a substitute for the official Inshore Waters and Shipping Forecasts, the tide tables, or your own judgement on the day.
Forecasts come from marine and weather computer models, shown hour by hour for three days, and are saved between updates so the page always has data. Models are coarse near the shore. The Solent is sheltered, so real waves and currents inside it can differ. For exact tide times use our tide tables, and for live readings see the Solent Weather Buoys page. Updated 01:47.