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UK Extremes

High Temp
20.6° C
London / Heathrow Airport
Low Temp
-0.3° C
Cairngorm
Precipitation
10.1 mm
Exeter Aws


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The UK Monthly Outlook for June 2011

This long range forecast is updated twice a month, covering 30 days on each occasion.
As with any forecast at longer range, it's not possible to go into much detail and accuracy can tend to
drop off toward the end of the period but it can still act as a very good guide to the weather during the upcoming month.

Quite warm, showery start, dry second half

June 2011 has started off with high pressure, but most of the first half will be cool and showery with slack areas of low pressure, although a lack of Atlantic frontal activity will most likely mean a fair amount of sunshine at times in between the showers.

The 4th June will be a mostly dry, sunny day across southern and western England, Ireland and Wales with highs of 20-23C in most places. However, cooler cloudier weather will spread from the north-east across much of Scotland and north-east England, the exception being SW Scotland where it will remain sunny and quite warm. The eastern side of Scotland will see highs of just 12-14C. The 5th will be similar, warm and sunny towards the SW, cooler and cloudier in the NE, but rain will spread into western Scotland late in the day. This rain will transfer south-eastwards on the 6th but will largely fizzle out as it tracks south-east, so most regions will have a cool, cloudy and mostly dry day.

With slack, slow moving low pressure in charge from the 7th to 10th June and a lack of frontal activity, most regions will have a mix of sun and showers. Temperatures will be close to or just below normal in most regions by day, with highs mostly between 14 and 18C, while there will be cool nights. The showers will be most frequent in north-eastern districts and some scattered thunderstorms are likely in eastern areas generally, while western areas and southern coastal areas will generally see fewer showers.

Towards the middle of June we will see more of an Atlantic influence come through (the so-called "June Return of the Westerlies" as the jet stream typically picks up pace around mid to late June) so we will see rain belts crossing the country at intervals and temperatures mostly close to the seasonal average. However, we am expecting a switch to increasing prevalence of high pressure to the south and east of the British Isles, so after midmonth temperatures will be mostly above average due to an above-average frequency of southerly winds. The weather will be mostly unsettled with Atlantic weather systems periodically crossing the country, and broadly speaking northern and western Scotland and north-western England will be cloudier and wetter than average during this period while eastern England will be drier and sunnier than average. we expect a widespread warm, sunny interlude lasting a few days or so to occur during the last third of the month.

Overview

We are predicting a Central England Temperature for the month of 15.1C, anticipating that the warm second half will more than offset a rather cool first half. Mean monthly temperatures will range from 0.5C above the 1971-2000 average in northern Scotland to 1.0-1.5C above in southern England.

Rainfall will again be below normal in most parts of eastern and southern England with shortages of 30-50%, but northern Scotland will have excesses of 20-40%. Other regions will have mostly close to average rainfall for the month.

Sunshine totals are expected to be a little above normal across southern Scotland, Ireland, Wales and England, though not outstandingly so, with excesses of 10-20% in most regions. It will be a cloudy month in northern Scotland with shortages of 10-20%.


Forecast issued on the 5th of June 2011